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  3. In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of 'miracle' is thoroughly rational.

Download and read the The Improbability Principle book written by David Hand, available in various formats such as PDF, EPUB, MOBI, Tuebl and others. Register now, 7 days free trial.

The Improbability Principle Product Detail:

  • Author : David Hand
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 27 February 2014
  • ISBN : 9781448170661
  • Page : 320 pages

Free download or read online The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day pdf (ePUB) book. The first edition of the novel was published in February 11th 2014, and was written by David J. The book was published in multiple languages including, consists of 288 pages and is available in Hardcover format. In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but.In fact, they’re commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal.

The improbability principle summary

The Improbability Principle Book Summary/Review:

Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle. This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works – and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple's song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...

T he Law of Inevitability. Something must happen. The law of inevitability says that one of the complete set of all possible outcomes of a random event must occur. So, to see this law in action, we need need to be able to list all the possible outcomes, at least in principle: the set of all possible lottery tickets that might come up, the set of all birthdays in a year, and so on. “The Improbability Principle is an elegant, astoundingly clear, and enjoyable combination of subtle statistical thinking and real-world events. Hand really does explain why ‘surprising' things will happen and why statistics matters.”.

Extremely improbable events are commonplace.

It’s an unusual day if nothing unusual happens”. This aphorism encapsulates a characteristic pattern of events called the Improbability Principle. Popularised by statistician Sir David Hand, emeritus professor at Imperial College London, it codifies the paradoxical idea that extremely improbable events happen frequently. [TM112 or search for “thatsmaths” at irishtimes.com].

We all experience coincidences on an everyday basis: you are thinking of a long-lost friend just as she phones you; on a holiday in Rome you meet your next-door neighbour; you join a bridge club to find there is already a member with the same name as your own. It seems that highly improbable events are commonplace.

Five Underlying Laws

Prof Hand appeals to five underlying strands that together make up the improbability principle. First, the “Law of Inevitability” states an obvious idea: something must happen! In a lottery draw, it is highly unlikely that you will pick the winning numbers, but quite likely that some lucky person has bought a winning ticket. After all, many tickets are sold and some particular combination of numbers must win.

Next, the “Law of Truly Large Numbers” says that, given enough chances or choices, something outlandish is bound to occur. With regular lotteries throughout the globe, the same six numbers in two consecutive draws are to be expected somewhere, sooner or later. Indeed, just such a coincidence occurred in September 2009 in the Bulgarian lottery.

What about Ireland? With 6 numbers to choose from 47, there are about 11 million possible combinations. But after 4,000 draws the chances are better than even that the same 6 numbers will have come up twice. This is very surprising; the same counter-intuitive result occurs when we consider the chances that two people in a group share the same birthday. A simple calculation shows that with just 23 people the chances of a common birthday are better than evens.

From front cover of The Improbability Principle

Then the “Law of Selection” shows that consideration of events that have already happened gives a distorted impression: by focussing on the occurrence of the same set of winning numbers in consecutive weeks, we tend to ignore the reality of the many thousands of cases in which no such coincidence has occurred.

What Hand calls the “Law of the Probability Lever” shows how minor changes can have a major impact on probability. Changing the assumptions about the underlying probability distribution can greatly affect the likelihood of extreme events. Recognizing that events thought to be independent of each other are actually connected can change a “remarkable coincidence” to something to be expected. Finally, the “Law of Near Enough” deals with treating similar events as if they are identical. If you do not find an exact match, you look for a near match and disregard the discrepancy.

The Improbability Principle

Prof Hand weaves these five strands into a general principle that gives him the title of his book “The Improbability Principle”, which bears the subtitle “Why Incredibly Unlikely Things Keep Happening”. He applies this principle to gambling, extreme weather, medical tests and motor accidents and more widely to explain why surprising things happen regularly and how statistical analysis gives us insight into a wide range of real-world events.

Sources

Principle

Small Probability Event Principle

Hand, David J, 2014: The Improbability Principle. Scientific American, 288pp. ISBN: 978-0374175344

Author: David J. Hand Submitted by: Maria Garcia 1429 Views View Chapter List Add a Review

The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day PDF book by David J. Hand Read Online or Free Download in ePUB, PDF or MOBI eBooks. Published in February 11th 2014 the book become immediate popular and critical acclaim in non fiction, science books.

The main characters of The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day novel are John, Emma. The book has been awarded with Booker Prize, Edgar Awards and many others.

One of the Best Works of David J. Hand. published in multiple languages including English, consists of 288 pages and is available in Hardcover format for offline reading.

Suggested PDF: Miracles Happen pdf

The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day PDF Details

The Improbability Principle Pdf

Author: David J. Hand
Book Format: Hardcover
Original Title: The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
Number Of Pages: 288 pages
First Published in: February 11th 2014
Latest Edition: February 11th 2014
Language: English
Generes: Non Fiction, Science, Science, Mathematics, Psychology, Science, Popular Science, Philosophy, Skepticism, Business, Sociology, Philosophy, History,
Formats: audible mp3, ePUB(Android), kindle, and audiobook.

The book can be easily translated to readable Russian, English, Hindi, Spanish, Chinese, Bengali, Malaysian, French, Portuguese, Indonesian, German, Arabic, Japanese and many others.

Please note that the characters, names or techniques listed in The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day is a work of fiction and is meant for entertainment purposes only, except for biography and other cases. we do not intend to hurt the sentiments of any community, individual, sect or religion

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#Chapters
1Chapter 1
2Chapter 2
3Chapter 3
4Chapter 4
5Chapter 5
6Chapter 6
7Chapter 7
8Chapter 8
9Chapter 9
10Chapter 10
11Chapter 11
12Chapter 12
13Chapter 13
14Chapter 14
15Chapter 15
16Chapter 16
17Chapter 17
18Chapter 18
19Chapter 19
20Chapter 20
21Chapter 21
22Chapter 22
23Chapter 23
24Chapter 24
25Chapter 25
26Chapter 26

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